Damn Randy, don't hold back!
I would say he'd crash on his first race. But I believe he'd make good progress and do well (I hope, anyways. I've never been more excited to see a Nascar race, ever.).
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Seems his release is all but done from Mclaren, just waiting on when to turn him loose on the Cup circuit. Looks like he may debut at Michigan in August.
According to Ron Dennis, JPM is still under McLAren's contract till the end of F1 season this year...conflicts with $ponsors and what not...